Which 2025 Tech Predictions Hit the Mark?
This time last year I presented four bold predictions for 2025:
Quantum computing breakthroughs
Significant acquisitions by tech giants
A major supply chain disruption
Resurgence of tech IPOs
Join me as we look back on whether I was right and explore what the other major technology stories of the year have been.
Prediction 1. A company will release a quantum computer with 7,000 or more Qubits - NEAR MISS
My 7,000-qubit ‘moonshot’ did not quite materialise in 2025, but we came surprisingly close. In September 2025, Caltech unveiled a 6,100-qubit neutral-atom array, which uses atoms held in place by laser ‘tweezers’, that operate at room temperature.
This is an increase of almost 50% from the 4,400 qubit machine announced by D-Wave last year, which aligns to my “gradually, then suddenly” thesis.
The long-running debate over whether D-Wave’s annealing machines count as ‘true’ quantum computers has continued; and Google has announced a new algorithm dubbed Quantum Echoes, which has been billed as the first ‘independently verifiable’ demonstration of quantum advantage.
On the market side, my prediction that quantum computing spend would continue to ramp up, is on track. D-Wave, for instance, reported revenue of around $24m for the 12 months ending 30 September 2025, up ~156% year-on-year.
Prediction 2. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ will collectively make 15 or more acquisitions – HIT
The seven largest tech companies have been on a spending spree in 2025:
Apple snapped up seven small AI startups, although not the shift towards health tech that I had anticipated
Meta focussed on audio-and-chips, buying Play AI and WaveForms AI for voice and ‘emotional audio’ models. Meta is also reportedly purchasing Rivos, an AI chip startup, to bolster their in-house silicon, and they acquired a 49% stake in Scale AI
Alphabet (Google) made headlines with a $32bn deal to acquire “cloud-security darling” Wiz, their largest acquisition to date
Nvidia added at least two AI infrastructure bets on top of its late-2024 Run:ai deal
Amazon bought Bee, an AI wearable that records voice audio, whilst Jeff Bezos’ new company Project Prometheus, quietly acquired agentic-computing startup General Agents
On the regulatory side, the return of a Trump administration coincided with a broader rebound in megadeals and a more permissive attitude to M&A in general, while Big Tech continued to fight legacy anti-trust cases in the courts.
Prediction 3: There’ll be at least one massive chip issue - HIT
In January a 6.4-magnitude earthquake in Taiwan forced Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to temporarily halt production, damaging an estimated 20,000 wafers and sparking fresh fears about the world’s dependence on a seismically active island for leading-edge chips
At the same time, a geopolitical debate over Nexperia (the Netherlands had challenged Nexperia’s Chinese ownership), led to China halting exports from a key plant, which triggered yet another round of production cuts for car manufacturers like Nissan and Honda.
My prediction that there could be logistical issues with getting neon gas out of the Donbas region, to make computer chips, turned out to be more of a slow-burn vulnerability than a single catastrophic failure. In response, chipmakers have quietly diversified: Samsung moved to recycled neon gas, and Taiwanese firms pushed to localise neon production.
We are certainly in a ‘severe’ semiconductor shortage period, with OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) such as Lenovo openly stockpiling memory chips and warning of continued constraints into 2026.
Phones, computers and medical devices continue to be shipped, but often more slowly and at higher prices, which was exactly the trade-off I flagged when I noted that “keeping inventory is expensive, but not being able to run your business is worse”.
Prediction 4: At least 40 tech companies will list on the US stock market – NEAR MISS
The IPO window finally reopened in 2025, with the US having its busiest year since 2021. However, when you focus on tech specifically, the numbers are modest. Renaissance Capital’s Technology IPO list for 2025 shows that approximately 35 tech companies floated by late November, which is just shy of my prediction.
IPO returns for newcomers has been weak. Klarna, the payment solutions provider, went public in September and is now trading 33% below its initial offering. Figma, the design tool company, is down almost 70%. Compare this to the Magnificent Seven, which saw year-on-year gains ranging between 10% (Meta, Amazon) and 90% (Alphabet).
Databricks, a company that I have predicted will IPO three years in a row, remains stubbornly private, having raised a fresh Series K round recently at a $100bn+ valuation.
Were 2025 Tech Predictions on the Mark?
Overall, 2025 largely validated the direction of last year’s predictions, even if a couple of the bold numbers didn’t quite land.
Quantum computing advanced meaningfully, supply chain fragilities impacted global technology markets, and Big Tech had more firepower than ever to buy growth potential. The IPO window did reopen, but not quite the broad-based resurgence many had hoped for.
Next week I’ll share my technology predictions for 2026. A few clues in advance… spiders continue to scatter, the “three Rs” now stands for regulatory recalibration repercussions, and “don’t tell a soul” computing swings a long shot off the tee.
Words by Shona Claremont
Edited by Anna Pringle